Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P) – February 10th, 2012

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Tropical Cyclone Jasmine (10P), located approximately 635 nm west-southwest of Tonga, has tracked east-southeastward at 07 knots over the past six hours. animated infrared satellite imagery shows the system has maintained its overall convective structure and consolidation.

The cyclone remains compact and symmetric around a well-defined 20-nm diameter eye. The initial position is placed with high confidence over the eye feature and the initial intensity is based on a congruent estimate of 77 knots from PGTW and KNES. Upper level analysis indicates the system is bordered to the north and east with ridge axes in a zone of low vertical wind shear (VWS).

TC 10P is expected to continue tracking along the southern periphery of a hyper-extended subtropical ridge (STR). An eventual break in the ridge after TAU 48 will pull the cyclone equatorward into a col area causing a drastic reversal in storm motion. Concurrently, VWS will increase and dissipate the system. The available numerical guidance is in good agreement until the equatorward portion of the track where the model envelope significantly spreads. Maximum significant wave height is 26 feet.