Great Lakes 40-Foot Waves, Storm Surge and Blowout

Oct 14, 2011; 12:56 PM ET

High winds and waves on the Great Lakes this weekend will result in a “storm surge” of 3 feet at Buffalo, New York, according to the NOAA Great Lakes Coastal Forecasting System, GLCFS model available Friday afternoon. This is a look at the worst of the “surge” as of Saturday afternoon, according to the model:

What you’re seeing here is the water level rise around 3 feet at Buffalo, while a “blowout tide” happens at the other end of Lake Erie (Toledo, Ohio) and the level falls more than 3 feet. This makes sense, if you think about it, because the wind will be blowing from the southwest to the northeast, pushing the water in that direction. On top of that, plus waves could be higher than 15 feet onshore, according to that model.

Could there be a seiche? The jury’s still out. Although the media described the “ice surge” of 2008 as a “seiche” I have since come to believe that a seiche can only occur with a fast-moving line of storms, not a general high wind event like this one.

To the west, the surge will be less but the official NOAA forecast shows waves over 25 feet on Lake Superior… but their a Storm Warningforecasts winds to reach 51 knots (almost 60 mph), with maximum waves of 39 feet!

By the way: These winds will continue into the mountains of Pennsylvania and New England tomorrow, so if you’re planning to take Fall Color photos you’d better do it soon!