Tropical Storm Threat for Philippines

May 5, 2011; 11:59 AM ET

WARMING SEAS, SHORTENING SHADOWS, MEANS TROPICAL STORM SEASON IS NIGH

The JTWC are alerting as to the potential for the formation of a tropical cyclone near the eastern Philippines. At this writing, showers and thunderstorms are showing some organization between eastern Philippines and the area of Palau. Weak low pressure is likely present already.

JTWC image.

Sea surface temperature in the area of tropical cyclone potential is 29 to 30 degrees C, easily warm enough to support cyclone formation. Wind shear, or conflict in wind between lower and upper troposphere, is weak; it is forecast to remain so through the end of the week.

At the same time, land is nearby, and the hilly landscape of the Philippines will put a drag on any attempt at strengthening.

The weather system, be it tropical depression or tropical storm, would track towards the northwest, be it over water or over land of the Philippines.

Barring a most unexpected (by me, anyways) marked intensification of this weather system, its foremost threat would be that of excessive rainfall and flooding. Also, excessive rainfall on the hilly landscape of the Philippines can lead to mudslides.

ANOTHER TROPICAL STORM POTENTIAL?

At the middle of next week, another tropical storm threat may arise over the tropical western Pacific Ocean waters between New Guinea and the Mariana Islands (Guam).