Bay of Bengal Tropical Cyclone Possible

Apr 28, 2011; 12:04 PM ET

THREE YEARS AFTER TROPICAL CYCLONE NARGUS

The end of April and the start of May bring with them the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Yes, it was three years ago that Tropical Cyclone Nagus was only beginning to wrap up over the Bay of Bengal ahead of its catastrophic landfall in Myanmar.

Fast forward to April 28, 2011, to find a mass of tropical rain and thunderstorms spread between Sri Lanka and Andaman. This mass has increased in organization since yesterday at this time.

Navy Research Lab Monterey (NRLMRY) image.

Sea-surface waters here are warm, near 30 degrees C over nearly all of the Bay of Bengal, which is easily enough to foster cyclone formation given a favorable atmospheric setting.

Numerical forecast model scenarios suggest the formation of a low-level circulation center within the mass of rain. These scenarios also show increasingly favorable winds aloft.

The upshot is that low pressure should be found over the open Bay of Bengal by the end of the week.

Next, a tropical cyclone could form here early next week. Movement should be towards the north. Ultimately, this weather system could reach land near the middle of the week between eastern India and central Myanmar.