Cold, easterly winds, snow for some

With a large high pressure area over Russia extending into Scandnavia and sending cold continental air our way, it’s going to be a cold week everywhere, but how snowy it will be is still open to question.

Today we current have a belt of rain, sleet and snow across Wales and south-west England (mostly rain near sea level, but significant snowfalls on high ground), extensive cloud cover is spreading west from the North Sea, and there is a dry sunny frosty belt in between. As the day goes on the wintry precipitation will clear from Wales but persist over south-west England until evening, where it will turn increasingly to sleet and snow at low levels. In Ireland, however, it will be rather milder with rain except for the highest ground. Elsewhere the cloud will continue to head in off the North Sea and most places will end up dry and cloudy by afternoon, but a scattering of wintry showers (sleet, snow and graupel) will spread into eastern Scotland and north-east England by afternoon and isolated snow showers may also turn up over East Anglia. The showers will be light and well scattered though, with no more than a dusting of snow at any one location. Except over Ireland, where temperatures will get up to 5-7C, it will be a cold day, with maximum temperatures between 1 and 3C for most, perhaps 4 or 5C around some south and east-facing coasts.

During Tuesday showers will tend to die away across eastern areas with just isolated snow flurries left near the North Sea coast, and most places will be dry, cloudy and cold with maximum temperatures between 1 and 3C. Sheltered western parts will have some brighter intervals, and in these areas there will be quite a hard frost overnight. Even the cloudy central and eastern areas will have a frost overnight but it will not be as sharp due to the cloud cover. In Ireland it will be a rather different day again, here rain will slowly clear north-westwards, turning increasingly to sleet and snow on high ground as it does so.

Between Wednesday and Friday a colder airmass is set to advance from the east, but there is considerable uncertainty over how much of an easterly airflow we will get- the UK lies very much at the “end of the line” for any easterly flow, due to the Russian high being situated a long way east. The most likely outcome is that an increasing number of snow showers will develop across eastern Scotland and north-east England during Wednesday and Thursday, albeit probably mostly confined to coastal areas, and then on Friday the main risk zone will shift southwards into East Anglia and south-east England. Elsewhere it will remain dry and become somewhat brighter. Thursday and Friday are likely to be especially cold with maximum temperatures close to or just below freezing in most places.

Looking further ahead, Atlantic systems will try to push in over the weekend which could bring some rather more widespread snow as the Atlantic systems collide with the very cold continental air, but confidence is currently low on how far east those systems will get- more on that as we head through the week.

Issued: Mon 30/01 10:05