Ma-on, the Next Big Typhoon

Jul 12, 2011; 12:08 PM ET

FORECAST MODELS SHOW DEEP CYCLONE

Tropical Storm 08W (Ma-on) is still a moderate tropical storm as of 1800 UTC Tuesday. However, if the most recent numerical forecast models (at least those that I have seen) are to believed, this will become a powerful typhoon by the end of the week.

The 1200 UTC Tuesday position (Joint Typhoon Warning Center–JTWC) was a little more than 700 miles northeast of Guam with westward movement near 11 knots.

Japan Meteorological Agency shows T.S. 08W (Ma-on) July 12, 2011.

A westward path, north of the Marianas and into the Philippines Sea, is indicated through the weekend. The small, remote Volcano Islands, such as Iwo Jima, could get a lashing.

The big question for early next week is that of the storm’s ultimate landfall. Earlier model runs favored a track into the Yellow Sea to Korea and even China. Later model scenarios have been more about mainland Japan. A strike on Kyushu or Shikoku could be troublesome, with damaging wind and flooding rain.

SOUTH WEST MONSOON ADVANCE

The India Meteorology Department (IMD) show the leading edge of Monsoon onset beyond the northwest borders, well inside Pakistan. The plotted line has been reached about one week earlier than average, according to the IMD Monsoon page.

While the IMD plot shows that the SW Monsoon reached Karachi at the end of last week, there is little, if anything, to show for in the city, which has yet to see its first seasonal rain. Indeed, the AccuWeather.com database shows no rain in Karachi since Feb. 20 — a long dry stretch.

Numerical forecast models show little promise for any rain in and near Karachi anytime soon.