Correction on the IMD Long Range Forecast Update

Jun 27, 2011; 12:26 PM ET

BELOW NORMAL RAINFALL FORECAST BY IMD

Having misread the June 21 press release and IMD’s Long Range Forecast Update, I gave wrong information on the earlier post.

The IMD have lowered their estimate of seasonal (Jun-Sep) rainfall, nation wide, to 95 percent of long-term average. The preliminary forecast was for 98 percent of long-term average.

A regional break-out of the forecast rain amount shows below-normal rainfall in all of the four broad geographical region:

North-West India: 97 percent;

North-East India: 95 percent;

Central India: 95 percent;

South Peninsula: 94 percent.

As a backdrop to the forecast, the IMD cited ENSO (El Nino-Southern Oscillation) neutral conditions (tropical Pacific), as well as the lack of strong forcing from the India Ocean (no Dipole, positive or negative).

“HOT SPOT” FOR HEAVY RAIN OVER NORTH INDIA

IMD Kalpana-1 satellite imagery taken 1700 UTC June 27, 2011.

Low pressure and cyclonic flow is centered over north-central India today, Monday. I cannot say that this is, or is not, the deep monsoon low that painted torrential rain westward from the head of the Bay of Bengal into eastern Rajasthan earlier in the month.

Anyways, this low is forecast to hang over north-central and north-western India for another few days, thereby making for a kind of “control center” for Subcontinent weather.

There will be more heavy falls of rain between Rajasthan and Madhya Pradesh, and the western Himalaya. Greater Delhi could have some.