By Larry Kusch and Bartley Kives, Winnipeg Free Press

WINNIPEG — Manitoba will punch a hole in a dike along the south side of the Assiniboine River east of Portage la Prairie and risk flooding 150 homes rather than take the chance an uncontrolled flood will swamp many more.

That was the grim choice flood officials were left with on Monday as they faced an unprecedented tide of water from western Manitoba.

At a Monday evening news conference that capped off a day spent furiously finalizing plans, provincial flood officials said the controlled release of water will prevent the Assiniboine from spilling its banks east of Portage la Prairie.

An uncontrolled spill could send a rush of water — 15,000 cubic feet per second — into the La Salle River, flooding 500 square kilometres of southern Manitoba and up to 850 residences in communities including Sanford, La Salle and Starbuck.

The unusual plan to punch a hole in the side of the Assiniboine would create a lot less damage.

The province expects a controlled spill into the La Salle watershed to flood 225 square kilometres of land south of the CN Rail main line in the rural municipalities of Portage and Cartier, flooding 150 homes.

The dike breach will be made as early as Wednesday. The province has yet to determine how it will make the cut.

Over the next few days, the province will also attempt to increase the capacity of the Portage Diversion, which sends most of the Assiniboine River’s flow into Lake Manitoba. It hopes to send as much to 32,000 cubic feet per second into Lake Manitoba, even though the artificial channel is designed to handle only 25,000 cfs.

At the same time, several hundred members of the Canadian Forces will tend to newly shored-up dikes along the Assiniboine between Portage and Headingley to see if the river can handle even more water — probably an additional 2,000 cfs.

Depending on the success of these two gambits, anywhere from 2,000 to 6,000 cfs of water will be allowed out through the controlled breach in the dike southwest of Portage la Prairie, between the hamlets of Southport and Hoop and Holler Bend.

“We have been doing everything possible to minimize the need for any controlled release of the water,” Emergency Measures Minister Steve Ashton said Monday night.

But the province felt it was out of options.

“The worst that can happen is an uncontrolled breach of the dike, because you can lose control of the water and where it goes,” Premier Greg Selinger said.

The Manitoba government has declared a provincial state of emergency to deal with the imminent flood threat for the city of Portage la Prairie and the Rural Municipalities of Portage, Woodlands, Rosser, St. Francois Xavier, Headingley, Cartier, Macdonald and Grey.

Winnipeg is not in any danger at this time.

But the diversion from the Assiniboine will hit the region around Lake Manitoba hard, a community meeting heard the community of Vogar, 200 kilometres northwest of Winnipeg, where officials told farmers that they need to get ready to evacuate 100,000 cattle and other farm animals in the next one or two weeks.

“You have to go now and start searching today” for a temporary home for your cows, said Manitoba Agriculture’s Ray Bittner. Many of those cattle will have to be transported to government-owned public pastures in Alberta and Saskatchewan because there is no room in Manitoba.

The flood forecast affects everyone along or near Lake Manitoba from north to south, up both east and west sides. “In my lifetime, we’ve never seen anything like this. It’s going to be serious,” said Bittner.

The 80 producers who attended the meeting at the Siglunes Community Hall near Vogar, nearly 200 kilometres northwest of Winnipeg, seemed stunned at first as they digested the news.

But rancher Joel Delaurier said flooding people’s land instead of homes in the city is to be expected.

“I understand what they’re doing, saving the masses. What can you do about it? Winnipeg eats our beef,” he said. Delaurier will have to move 600 head of cattle at a cost of $17,000.

Lake Manitoba will peak June 13-15 and is expected to stay high for at least a month.

—With files from Bill Redekop